IN ROUGH ESSAY FORM
Cases will continue to skyrocket for another two weeks and plateau for the rest of the summer, as heavily impacted and emerging outbreak states tap on the brakes—but don’t pull the emergency brake required to crush their outbreaks.
—Please keep in mind. This prediction does not just apply to today’s most impacted states today (FL, AZ, TX, GA, OK, CA, SC). What’s happening there can happen anywhere if your state leadership falls asleep at the switch or purposefully delays flipping that switch in the face of the obvious—
Hospitalizations will continue rise through mid to late July, pushing a number of these states beyond their capacity, or very close to the edge of it.
Deaths will rise significantly from mid to late July…reaching a peak in late July. The younger demographic of this outbreak will prevent deaths from skyrocketing as seen in April. The twenty-thirty something demographic tends to live outside of the home, somewhat limiting their immediate contacts with the most vulnerable populations. They will still go everywhere they can (shopping, restaurants, public facing jobs, etc), so this group will spread the virus and keep death count up. Keep in mind, not every person infected in the past few weeks has been in the 20-35 year range. The spread is fairly wide, though it trends younger. Average age is 34. Revisit the definition of average. Plenty of older people are counted in the new cases…and U.S. deaths trend far younger than European deaths.
By August, the US will be saturated with COVID19 for the reopening of schools. Unlike 20-30 year olds who tend to live away from home—every kid from pre-school through 12th grade returns home every day to a family comprised of potentially vulnerable people.
Students will bring the virus home to vulnerable parents, older family members, siblings, etc…while also spreading it throughout the community at their jobs, hangouts and sports (see the problem professional teams are having) during the early fall. ALL OF THIS HITTING AT THE SAME TIME AS THE FLU SEASON.
The fall is going to be a nightmare, as hospitals simultaneously deal with critically ill seasonal influenza and COVID19 patients. Death rates will soar far beyond anything we’ve previously seen. Add the economic disaster looming toward the end of the summer (no new stimulus money, unemployment bonus runs dry, evictions no longer paused, mortgages no longer paused and consumer confidence shattered), AND WE ARE INDEED HEADED FOR A VERY DARK WINTER.
Start preparing now by stocking up on essentials.