STAY SAFE. BE WELL. SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE.

At this point you either SEE IT or YOU DON’T SEE IT. If you DON’T SEE IT, no amount of science, facts or argument will make a difference. You’re probably not reading this right now, but I’m still writing this for you—because I’m still on your side.

THE CURRENT COVID19 SURGE IS JUST GETTING STARTED, and a number of states have already met or exceeded ICU capacity. THIS WILL GET FAR WORSE, EVERYWHERE. AS IN CATASTROPHICALLY WORSE! I don’t even know what this will eventually resemble. 2-3X the deaths and hospitalizations we’re seeing today? It’s not out of the question.

This isn’t just my opinion. I’m echoing what I’ve consistently heard from all of the scientists and public health officials that I trust—they’ve been right about nearly everything so far.

THEIR CONSENSUS? — WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT AND DRASTIC STATE, COUNTY OR CITY LEVEL ACTION (federal is off the table…always has been) in the form of SERIOUS, TARGETED RESTRICTIONS AND LOCKDOWNS, the only external factor that will slow or stop this surge is a vaccine, which is several months away from the kind of widespread distribution that will make a difference.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU? — ASSUME THE WORST IS YET TO COME.

If you haven’t already, I SUGGEST STOCKING UP AGAIN. PPE, disinfectants, toilet paper, food staples, medicines, pet food…the usual suspects. The supply system proved resilient enough in the spring, but the pandemic really only slammed a few parts of the country. It’s surging everywhere now.

DO WHAT YOU DID IN MARCH, if that’s an option. Be as safe as possible if it isn’t an option. Wear masks at work, wash hands, hand sanitize, socially distance…ALL OF IT.

RETHINK THE HOLIDAYS. PLEASE. Read this fantastic article to put that into perspective. THIS THANKSGIVING, CHOOSE LOVE.

LISTEN TO THE EXPERTS. I check in with the following doctors, scientists and public health officials every day. Most of them post their summaries on Twitter, but you can Google their names and look for their latest interviews. Most of them are interviewed DAILY.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, Laurie Garrett, Andy Slavitt, Dr. Gottlieb, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, Dr. Ashish Jha and Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Finally, I can’t recommend the following website enough. RTLIVE. You can get numbers everywhere, but I’ve found that tracking Rt (Effective Reproductive Number) to be the most predictive measure of where your state is headed (heads up Florida, Arizona and Texas…it’s coming back for a second pass!). Cases follow Rt (up or down) by 30 days. If your state’s Rt is above 1.0, cases WILL GROW, even if the Rt remains level. Indiana has been at 1.14 since the middle of September, and we’ve seen exponential case growth. Keep in mind that hospitalizations follow cases by 2 weeks and deaths by 3 weeks.

That’s going to be it for me for the next few months. I have a book to write, and there’s not much to be done. I’ve circled my wagons at home.

STAY SAFE. BE WELL. SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE.