Epidemiologists and public health officials (real ones) have been so “spot on” with COVID19 numbers since the spring, that even people like you and I can predict where your state and the nation is soon headed. AND IT ISN’T PRETTY.
Here’s my quick prediction method, based on publicly reported data and several trusted epidemiologists’ work. I’ll use my home state of INDIANA as an example. You can find yours at New York Times COVID19 Coronavirus Map Page here –> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/
INFECTIONS TURN INTO CASES WITHIN A 3-8 DAY TIMEFRAME. We saw that very clearly post Thanksgiving. Cases started rising sharply around December 2. HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!!
CASES TURN INTO PEAK HOSPITALIZATIONS IN ABOUT 12 DAYS. This tracks with what I’ve seen in Indiana. Cases started rising for Indiana’s fall surge toward the end of September. Hospitalizations took off like a rocket ship during the first week of October.
DEATHS FOLLOW HOSPITALIZATIONS, PEAKING 10-11 DAYS LATER.
So, what does all of this mean for Indiana, and probably your state as well?
WE’VE ONLY SEEN A SMALL FRACTION OF THE HOSPITALIZATIONS RESULTING FROM THANKSGIVING INFECTIONS. Cases started to rise again on December 3rd. So, in about a week (December 14) the hospitals will be hit by a tidal wave of cases. It’s unclear whether the hospital system can handle it. The system was nearly maxed out by the surge before Thanksgiving.
DEATHS WILL START TO RISE PRECIPITOUSLY A WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS, SADLY PEAKING RIGHT AROUND THE BIG DAY. HO! HO! HO!
***AGAINST ALL SCIENTIFIC WARNINGS, FACTS, COMMON SENSE AND HUMAN DECENCY—THOUSANDS OF FAMILIES WILL HAVE AN EMPTY SEAT AT THE CHRISTMAS TABLE, WHERE A LIVELY, LOVELY MEMBER OF THE FAMILY SAT FOR THANKSGIVING.***