Here's an article I wrote for Discover Sci Fi in early April. Click on Image to get to the article. https://discoverscifi.com/steven-konkoly-on-predicting-the-covid-19-pandemic/
My Paul Revere Ride Through The Start of the COVID19 Pandemic
For those of you who don't know, I've been at this longer than my first post here (April 22nd) might suggest. Unfortunately, based on recent trends, I predict I'll be here far longer than I had hoped. Really wish I had been wrong. MY PAUL REVERE RIDE THROUGH THE START OF THE PANDEMIC ON PREDICTING …
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JUST IN CASE YOU’RE AS CONFUSED AS THE CDC
For your safety and the safety of others. And so we can get out of this pandemic death spiral. The CDC added this very important warning/information to their website on Friday: “There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances …
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TO DIE OR NOT TO DIE—The Danger of Binary Thinking
Mercifully, deaths and hospitalizations did not chase the summer surge of COVID19 cases. A better understanding of how to treat patients contributed to fewer deaths, but the general consensus from the public health community mostly attributes the divergence of cases and deaths/hospitalizations to the demographic infected over the summer. Younger...and less vulnerable to severe complications, …
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A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE
75 years ago today, Japanese Imperial Forces formally surrendered onboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay, ending one of the most uniquely lethal and unforgiving combat campaigns ever fought by the U.S. and allied forces. I can recommend some incredible books (non-fiction that reads like fiction) written about the Pacific war if you're interested. Overall, …
THE FOREVER PANDEMIC
1. "The pandemic will never go away here in the U.S." I said that to my wife this morning, in all seriousness. I just don't see how it'll go away, even with a vaccine. Apparently, I'm not the only one with that pessimistic thought. PREPARE FOR A PERMANENT PANDEMIC - John Stoer (The Editorial Board) …
WHERE DO WE WANT TO BE IN THREE MONTHS?
A number of uncontrollable and controllable factors are converging on the U.S. 1.) The start of the school year —guaranteed to spread the pandemic in hot zones or recovering areas. Very controllable with virtual learning or in-person/hybrid if the school district is in an area that crushed COVID19. Dr. Ashish Jha, Director Global Health Institute, …
WHY IS COVID19 CRUSHING US, AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND?
“The best thing that we can do to set our economy up for success and rebounding from the last few months is making sure our outbreak is in a good place,” said Caitlin Rivers, epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “People are not going to feel comfortable returning to activities in the …
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DECISION TIME
DECISION TIME --> FOUR PATHS. 1.) Status Quo. 2.) Full Shutdown. 3.) Whack-a-mole. 4.) Masks (mandatory)As the pandemic surges, there are three scenarios of what happens next - Dr. Leana Wen, Washington Post. We just hit 1,000 deaths again (consistent trend upward)...a direct result of rising cases in early to mid June (deaths lag cases …
NEW PREDICTION: SHUTDOWNS-LOCKDOWNS-SHELTER IN PLACE ORDERS ARE COMING—AGAIN.
I simply don't see any other way for Florida, California, Arizona, Texas and a few other states to pull out of their current nosedive. Simply rolling back a phase or two in their reopening plans won't be enough at this point. The positivity rates are too high in these states. Shutting down bars and indoor …
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COVID19 — THE TRUTH through vetted science, expert opinion and objective analysis 