With very little variation, every surge/wave of COVID19 has followed the same pattern: HOSPITALIZATIONS START TO RISE 7-10 DAYS AFTER CASES START TO RISE. DEATHS START TO RISE AROUND 21 DAYS AFTER CASES START TO RISE. AND OMICRON IS NO DIFFERENT. When will we learn to quit making assumptions about the impact of each variant …
Has it really been 8 months? HERE WE GO AGAIN.
Unfortunately, after a long hiatus from ringing the pandemic alarm bell, I feel somewhat compelled to provide a COVID19 public service announcement given the recent rise in cases across the country—caused by the DELTA variant's unstoppable dominance over all other strains. I'm not going to tell you what to do...instead I will simply share my …
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RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR WITH A NEW COVID19 VARIANT
Because 2020 wasn't bad enough I know I'm kind of preaching to the same choir at this point, but I think this is important enough to explain. The UK COVID19 variant B.1.1.7. is in the U.S. and is spreading. The chart below shows what happened in the UK and Ireland when this new variant dominated …
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THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THANKSGIVING AND CHRISTMAS FOR THOUSANDS OF FAMILIES? AN EMPTY SEAT AT THE HOLIDAY TABLE.
Epidemiologists and public health officials (real ones) have been so "spot on" with COVID19 numbers since the spring, that even people like you and I can predict where your state and the nation is soon headed. AND IT ISN'T PRETTY. Here's my quick prediction method, based on publicly reported data and several trusted epidemiologists' work. …
“Why is it okay to dine inside among dozens of strangers, but not a good idea to have Thanksgiving or Christmas with extended family?
THE LOGIC OF PANDEMIC RESTRICTIONS IS FALLING APART The question is far more nuanced than it appears. The answer sheds light on why we're caught in this FOREVER PANDEMIC. HINT: At the level of community spread we're seeing in most states right now, you can't do either safely and expect to get a handle on …
A THREE-WEEK PAUSE TO SAVE LIVES
I know it sounded like I was about to disappear into my writing cave last Friday and not reemerge until next year, but I saw something that I feel is REALLY HELPFUL. Michigan has initiated three week PAUSE TO SAVE LIVES, and I think we can all use the same guidance to determine how to …
STAY SAFE. BE WELL. SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE.
At this point you either SEE IT or YOU DON'T SEE IT. If you DON'T SEE IT, no amount of science, facts or argument will make a difference. You're probably not reading this right now, but I'm still writing this for you—because I'm still on your side. THE CURRENT COVID19 SURGE IS JUST GETTING STARTED, …
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WE’RE NOT “ROUNDING THE TURN” ON COVID19—NOT EVEN CLOSE
AND ANYONE WHO TELLS YOU DIFFERENTLY IS FLAT OUT LYING OR UNKNOWINGLY REPEATING THE LIES OF LIARS. WE'RE HEADED IN A STEEP, STRAIGHT LINE TOWARD AN EVEN BIGGER DISASTER. ONLY FOUR STATES HAVE AN INFECTION RATE (RT) BELOW 1.00, INDICATING REDUCTION IN VIRUS SPREAD. CLICK HERE TO CHECK YOUR STATE'S INFECTION RATE AND IMPLIED INFECTIONS …
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The Method to My Madness
A number of friends have asked me what I track on a daily-weekly basis to make predictions and decisions during the pandemic. So much has changed in terms of available data tools over the past 9 months—that I'm constantly evaluating and often changing what I watch. As briefly as possible, I'll walk you through my …
Since The Cat’s Out Of The Bag
Here's an article I wrote for Discover Sci Fi in early April. Click on Image to get to the article. https://discoverscifi.com/steven-konkoly-on-predicting-the-covid-19-pandemic/
COVID19 — THE TRUTH through vetted science, expert opinion and objective analysis 